Even before the results of Tuesday’s elections are finalized, President Donald Trump appears to be looking past them, toward the 2026 midterms, which he views as a critical test of his presidency. Speaking from the White House, Trump expressed concern about the political trend that often sees presidents lose ground during midterm elections. “We’ve had success like nobody, but for some reason, you lose the midterms,” he said. His comments underline the anxiety within his administration as it braces for what could become another major political battle.
Tuesday’s elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and California are being watched closely, not only for their immediate results but for what they might signal about the nation’s political mood. For Trump, these races represent an early verdict on his second term, a measure of whether the public still supports his policies or is already showing signs of fatigue.
The most significant contests are unfolding in Virginia and New Jersey, both of which have long leaned Democratic but have shown signs of shifting. In New Jersey, Trump threw his full support behind Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, claiming that the state is “turning Republican very quickly.” Yet, Democrats maintain a strong registration advantage, and Trump’s influence will truly be tested here.
In Virginia, the stakes are even higher. The state, home to large numbers of federal employees and military families, has been hit hard by the ongoing government shutdown. Democrats are hoping to channel voter frustration into a backlash against Trump’s policies, while Republicans are trying to hold ground in an increasingly competitive environment.
At the same time, California voters are weighing in on a major redistricting measure that could reshape the political map, a move widely seen as part of the broader battle over congressional control leading up to the 2026 midterms.
Despite not being on the ballot, Trump’s presence looms large over nearly every race. Democrats are using voter frustration with the president to mobilize turnout, framing the elections as an opportunity to send a message to Washington. Republicans, on the other hand, are counting on Trump’s loyal supporters to show up in force, especially those who don’t usually vote in off-year elections.
Former President Barack Obama even joined the campaign trail in Virginia and New Jersey, rallying Democrats with fiery speeches about what he called the “lawlessness and carelessness” of the Trump administration. The contrast between Trump’s combative style and Obama’s call for unity highlights just how polarized the political climate has become.
Still, Trump’s advisors say the president is fixated on avoiding the kind of losses that plagued his first term, when Democrats took control of the House. “The president is obsessively focused on the midterms,” one senior adviser admitted, emphasizing Trump’s determination to protect his agenda from being rolled back.
Beyond the state races, the real political fight is playing out in the background through redistricting efforts. Several states, including Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri, are already working to redraw congressional maps to secure more Republican seats. In response, California and Virginia are moving to do the same in favor of Democrats.
This redistricting war could shape the outcome of the 2026 midterms more than any single election this year. Trump’s push to strengthen Republican advantages in key states shows his intent to build a lasting political majority that can weather midterm losses and secure his legislative goals.
As both parties gear up for the next national battle, it’s clear that Trump sees the 2026 midterms as a defining moment for his legacy. He has told allies that failing to win would risk undoing “everything we’ve done.” For Democrats, however, the elections offer a chance to regain momentum and counter what they see as the president’s increasingly hardline agenda.
“Everything’s about Trump,” one Virginia voter remarked, and that may be the clearest summary of the moment. No matter which names appear on the ballot, the shadow of Trump looms over every campaign, every issue, and every vote.
As the results roll in, the question isn’t just who wins this week’s races, but whether Trump can rewrite the familiar midterm story of presidential losses when 2026 arrives.
