Russian forces are preparing for a potential breakthrough in southern Ukraine, concentrating troops and equipment in the direction of the towns of Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Ukrainian military officials.
Speaking on air on October 5, Vladyslav Voloshyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces, warned that Moscow appears to be laying the groundwork for a renewed offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region in the coming days.
The warning comes as Russian troops continue to press their advance in eastern Ukraine, raising concerns that the Kremlin is attempting to stretch Ukrainian defenses across multiple fronts.
“If they achieve a breakthrough, Russia will be able to fire at logistical routes connecting Zaporizhzhia to the east of Ukraine,” Voloshyn said. “Russia will try to succeed at any cost to cut off our logistics,” he added, emphasizing the strategic importance of the area.
According to Voloshyn, Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russian forces are actively amassing both personnel and logistical support in the region.
He said the buildup suggests that “in a few days, they will likely start new offensive operations.” The anticipated tactics, he noted, would likely involve small assault groups supported by armored vehicles, a method Russia has increasingly relied on in recent months to probe Ukrainian defenses and exploit potential weak points.
Orikhiv, one of the focal points of the warning, remains under Ukrainian control. The town lies roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) southeast of the regional capital Zaporizhzhia and about 10 kilometers (6 miles) north of the current front line, making it a key defensive position shielding critical supply routes and population centers further north.
The surrounding area was also a central axis of Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive in 2023.
During that campaign, Ukrainian forces succeeded in liberating the settlement of Robotyne, though they were unable to achieve a decisive breakthrough toward the Sea of Azov. Since then, the front has largely stabilized, but fighting has remained intense.
Earlier this year, Russia intensified its attacks in southern Ukraine and claimed to have recaptured Robotyne.
Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly denied those claims, insisting that their forces continue to hold positions in and around the area despite sustained Russian pressure.
Voloshyn’s latest comments echo a similar warning he issued on September 28, when he said Russia was “amassing personnel” in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and preparing a new maneuver near the occupied village of Pryiutne.
At the time, he cautioned that while Russian forces appeared readying for increased activity, a full-scale offensive would require significantly larger troop concentrations.
As the situation develops, Ukrainian officials say they are closely monitoring Russian movements in the south, wary that any successful breakthrough near Orikhiv or Mala Tokmachka could have serious implications for Ukraine’s logistics and its ability to sustain operations along the eastern front.
