President Donald Trump has warned that the United States could face a 1929-style economic collapse if courts overturn his use of emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs, despite repeatedly claiming the economy is thriving under his leadership.
In a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump said a ruling against his tariff authority would amount to a “judicial tragedy” and trigger an economic disaster from which the country would not recover.
“If a Radical Left Court ruled against us at this late date, in an attempt to bring down or disturb the largest amount of money, wealth creation and influence the U.S.A. has ever seen, it would be impossible to ever recover,” Trump wrote. “It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION!”
The comments come as Trump’s tariff strategy faces mounting legal scrutiny. In May, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the president exceeded his authority by using emergency powers to justify many of the tariffs imposed on foreign goods.
Last week, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit heard the administration’s appeal, with several of the 11 judges expressing skepticism that the law allows tariffs to be imposed as aggressively as Trump has pursued. A decision has not yet been issued, and the case is widely expected to reach the Supreme Court.
Trump said that if the courts were going to rule against his actions, they should have done so earlier in the process. “If they were going to rule against the wealth, strength, and power of America, they should have done so LONG AGO,” he said.
The remarks surprised some analysts, both because sitting presidents rarely warn publicly of imminent economic catastrophe and because Trump’s tariff policies are widely seen by economists as a potential drag on growth rather than a safeguard.
“If courts shoot down the tariffs, it would be complicated – but a huge positive,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, told CNN. “There would be a massive celebration.”
Trump has pointed to a sharp rise in tariff revenue this year as evidence of success, noting that collections have surged under his expanded trade measures. But economists argue the impact on overall government finances is minimal.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, estimated that the additional $70 billion to $80 billion in tariff revenue compared with last year is insignificant relative to nearly $7 trillion in federal spending.
“The view that returning the custom duties would lead to a depression is largely misguided,” Daco said. “It’s not going to make or break much.”
Daco added that even if courts forced a rollback of tariff rates – which is not guaranteed, given the president’s other legal options – the effect could be positive for the economy. “It would actually be stimulative,” he said.
In his Truth Social post, Trump also credited tariffs with driving the US stock market to record highs. While equities have climbed sharply this summer, market analysts reject the idea that tariffs are responsible.
“That’s unambiguously backwards,” Hogan said. “The trade war, when it started, caused one of the steepest market downturns since the 1990s.”
Markets only began to recover after Trump paused some of his most aggressive tariff proposals in April, easing fears of an escalating trade war.
“The only thing the market is celebrating is that we’re seeing tariff frameworks that are better than worst-case scenarios,” Hogan said. “Everyone on Wall Street knows these tariffs slow growth and are paid by consumers. This is a shadow tax.”
