As the only remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia approaches its expiration, tensions between the two nations have escalated with public threats of renewed nuclear testing. The New START treaty nears expiration on February 5, 2026, placing both countries at a critical crossroads just as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin trade provocative statements regarding their nuclear arsenals.
The New START treaty, first signed in 2010, limits the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and a maximum of 700 deployed delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. The treaty also established a verification system that allowed both sides to monitor compliance and maintain transparency, helping to reduce the risk of miscalculation. A five-year extension signed under President Joe Biden ensured the treaty would remain in effect until early 2026, but there has been little progress toward negotiating a replacement or a further extension.
In recent weeks, both leaders have made headlines with statements suggesting they could restart nuclear testing. In late October, Putin highlighted Russia’s tests of the nuclear-powered Poseidon missile, which prompted Trump to announce that he had ordered the first U.S. nuclear tests in three decades. While U.S. officials later clarified that these tests would involve non-explosive experiments on nuclear warhead components rather than full detonations, the rhetoric has raised concern among arms control experts and international observers.
Trump’s administration has previously explored ways to extend the current limits on deployed nuclear weapons and considered strategies to expand the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Meetings with national security and nuclear weapons experts were held in preparation for discussions with Putin, but the August summit between the two leaders ended without a breakthrough on either the Ukraine conflict or nuclear agreements. Following the summit, Putin publicly proposed a one-year extension of the New START treaty, which Trump responded to positively. However, months later, neither side has confirmed ongoing negotiations toward that goal.
Russia has suspended participation in certain monitoring mechanisms under the treaty, citing restrictions on inspections of its nuclear facilities and ongoing tensions over Ukraine. Despite these limitations, both countries have largely adhered to the treaty’s caps on deployed strategic weapons. Experts warn that allowing the treaty to expire without an agreement could lead to a situation in which the U.S. and Russia can deploy long-range nuclear weapons without mutual restraint for the first time in decades. This could increase the risk of miscalculations and misunderstandings, particularly as both nations continue to develop new nuclear systems and as China rapidly expands its nuclear capabilities.
Some analysts argue that a political agreement to maintain the existing caps on nuclear weapons could be reached relatively quickly. Russian officials have indicated that their offer of a limited extension is not open-ended. The U.S. has not formally responded to this proposal, and domestic political pressures, particularly from Republican lawmakers, may influence the decision to extend or replace the treaty. Trump has expressed interest in negotiating nuclear arms control not only with Russia but also with China, reflecting his longstanding focus on involving all major nuclear powers in potential future agreements.
The recent public statements and weapons testing by both leaders have complicated prospects for extending New START. Some U.S. officials believe that Russia’s demonstrations, although outside the treaty’s coverage, were intended to pressure the United States but may have instead reduced Trump’s willingness to pursue a follow-on agreement. Lawmakers and experts are divided, with some advocating for maintaining the treaty’s limits, while others argue that the U.S. should seize the opportunity to modernize its nuclear forces without constraint.
With New START approaching its expiration and the specter of resumed nuclear testing, the world faces a heightened risk of nuclear competition. The decisions made in the coming months by the United States and Russia will shape the framework of global arms control and strategic stability, while also influencing the behavior of emerging nuclear powers. Maintaining dialogue and restraint is seen by experts as essential to preventing a renewed arms race and reducing the potential for dangerous miscalculations between the world’s largest nuclear powers.
