In northern Mozambique, an ISIS insurgency in Mozambique is gaining fresh force as deep cuts in U.S. aid programs strip back support for vulnerable communities. The withdrawal of funding comes at a dangerous time: extremist fighters are stepping up attacks, aid agencies are shrinking their footprint, and local populations are increasingly exposed to violence and instability.
Earlier this year, the United States executed a sharp reduction in foreign aid to Mozambique. According to reports, USAID slashed over 80 percent of its funding in Cabo Delgado, putting major humanitarian and development programs on hold. Without this backing, NGOs and social initiatives are crumbling, and essential services are being scaled back.
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) warns that the vacuum left by aid reductions is translating directly into human suffering. In their estimate, nearly one million people are now without critical support amidst worsening conflict, hunger and displacement. Over 1.4 million people in the region have already been forced from their homes, and recurrent cycles of violence and natural disasters are pushing the crisis to a breaking point.
Cabo Delgado, a gas-rich northern province, has been the epicenter of a long-running Islamist insurgency since 2017. The group behind much of the violence is linked to the Islamic State, locally known as ISIS-Mozambique (or IS-Moz). Attacks have become more frequent and brutal, with villages raided, civilians abducted, and mass displacement underway.
Reports show that in a recent surge, insurgents displaced tens of thousands of people in a matter of weeks. Officials say that the cut in international funding is directly hampering the response: fewer convoys can deliver food, healthcare, and shelter, and many civilians are left in camps or makeshift settlements.
Without reliable humanitarian support, long-term drivers of radicalization are worsening. Youth unemployment in Cabo Delgado remains sky-high, and basic education and social cohesion programs funded by U.S. aid have been suspended. This creates a fertile ground for extremist groups to recruit new members , especially among marginalized and displaced populations.
Experts say the aid cuts are doing more than just halting development: they’re eroding hope. When people see that the world has pulled back just as violence is surging, they may increasingly turn to insurgents, either out of desperation or to join them in the fight.
The instability in Cabo Delgado is not just a humanitarian issue,it’s a strategic one. Analysts warn that if ISIS-linked forces continue to expand, Mozambique could face a long-term breakdown in governance. The insurgency threatens not only lives but also major economic projects, including multi-billion-dollar LNG developments in the region. These energy projects were once seen as economic lifelines but are now at risk amid insecurity.
Meanwhile, social unrest is bubbling beyond the north. With dwindling aid, rising displacement, and deepening inequality, Mozambique faces a surge in political risk. The sudden drop in U.S. funding hasn’t just disrupted development , it’s altering the balance of power in fragile communities.
Humanitarian agencies have drastically lowered their response targets. In some regions, funding now covers only a fraction of those in need. Clinics and community centers that used to rely on U.S. support are closing or operating on skeleton staff. This leaves families without clean water, healthcare or protection from insurgent threats.
The impact on children and women is particularly acute. Many of the displaced are children, and in the camps, risks of gender-based violence and abuse are rising. As hunger spreads and access to food dwindles, malnutrition and desperation are becoming more common.
To prevent further destabilization, experts argue for two parallel tracks: restoring humanitarian funding and increasing support for security and stabilization efforts. Humanitarian agencies need more resources to reach displaced populations, rebuild health infrastructure and deliver food and shelter. At the same time, local and regional forces, supported by international partners , must strengthen efforts to contain and counter the extremist threat.
Mozambique’s government, too, will need to reallocate resources carefully. In the face of shrinking foreign funding, it must find ways to sustain critical services, bolster community protection, and invest in long-term recovery , particularly in regions like Cabo Delgado where violence has already uprooted hundreds of thousands.
The ISIS insurgency in Mozambique is entering a more dangerous chapter, fueled in large part by U.S. aid cuts that have hollowed out humanitarian support. As extremist violence surges, communities are left more exposed than ever. To avert a full-blown collapse in stability, both international donors and Mozambican authorities must step up, before the crisis spirals further out of control.
